In my column on the stock market a year ago, I referenced the above long-quoted observation that I had come to know from my earliest days as a neophyte on Wall Street. That epigram, commonly called the “January Barometer,” refers to the year’s direction of the S&P500 stock index. The measure has been uncannily accurate, correctly forecasting nearly 90% of the time since 1950. It worked in spades last year, and with a strong stock market now behind us in January this year, one could anticipate that 2024 might well be another positive year for stock market returns.

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In 1980, shortly after being hired at Citicorp Investment Management, Inc. (CIMI was how we referred to ourselves), I was introduced to Bob Davis, a full-blooded Texan, who ran the company’s investment office in Houston. We had important things in common—primarily, our youth (we were both thirty-two at the time) our passion for the world of investing, and our endless drive.

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Americans are among the most generous people in the world. Charities Aid Foundation, a UK-based charity compiling data from 140 countries, creates an annual country-by-country index of charitable giving. It is constructed from three forms of activity: donating money, volunteering time, and helping strangers. In 2022, the United States ranked #3, closely behind Indonesia and Kenya, two countries where religion plays a strong role in the culture of giving.

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Some of the greatest scandals in the world of investments have involved insider trading, which is taking advantage of significant non-public information to reap personal profits from stock transactions. Anyone who has worked in the financial industry can appreciate and understand the validity of both the letter and the spirit of the regulations surrounding inside information.

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It may seem like an understatement to say that 2022 was an unpleasant year in the stock market when the total return on the S&P500 was a negative 18.1%, but as down markets go, there have been far worse. Remember 2008 when the index declined a whopping 36.5%?

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It’s been well over a dozen years since the last sustained “bear market” in this country, defined as a twenty percent correction in stock prices from a recent high. The COVID-related crash in March of 2020 was technically a bear market, but its duration was so short and the subsequent bull market so strong, that it created little to none of the anxiety associated with a traditional bear market.

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